Sign up for the Ask the Expert e-mail newsletter Question: If I invest some of my money in bonds for retirement, what penalty would I pay if I had to sell some of those bonds? –Terri Answer: Winston Churchill once famously described Russia as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” As far as many individual investors are concerned, he might have been talking about bonds too. And indeed these days the bond market is even more confusing than usual, what with cross currents ranging from subprime mortgage problems to the threat of recession to the possibility of renewed inflation sweeping through the market. So I’m happy to answer your question and at the same time try to provide some broader advice about steps you and other individual investors might take to navigate today’s challenging bond market. Let’s start with a quick recap of what bonds are and how they work. Basically, a bond is an IOU. When you buy a bond - whether it’s a Treasury, corporate or municipal bond - you’re essentially lending money to the issuer who agrees to make interest payments and repay the principal, or face amount of the bond at the end of its term. The risks
When you invest in bonds (or bond funds, for that matter), you take two risks. One is called credit risk, which is the possibility that the bond issuer might not be able to make required interest payments or repay the principal value at the end of the bond’s term. That’s not a problem with Treasury bonds, since Uncle Sam can always tax us to come up with the dough to make good on the bonds. But this is a risk with other types of bonds. Today, investors are particularly jittery about credit risk in part because some bonds are backed by pools of mortgages whose value has become suspect because of problems in the credit and housing markets. The second risk bond investors face is called interest-rate risk. Think of a seesaw with interest rates on one side and bond prices on the other. When rates go up, bond prices go down. This inverse relationship makes sense when you think about it. Let’s say I buy a 10-year bond for its face value of $1,000 that pays 5% annual interest, or $50 a year. And let’s assume that right after I buy the bond inflation fears push up interest rates so that a similar 10-year bond issued at a $1,000 face value the very next day has to pay 6% annual interest or $60 a year. Clearly, the value of my bond would fall below $1,000. After all, who would give me a thousand bucks for 10 payments of $50 a year plus the return of the $1,000 face value when for the same thousand dollars they could get 10 payments of $60 a year plus the return of the $1,000 face value? Which brings us back to your question: if you wanted to sell your bonds what sort of penalty might you pay? Well, you wouldn’t actually pay a penalty in the same sense that a bank charges a penalty for cashing in a CD early. Rather, the amount you would receive for your bond would depend on its market value. If bond investors were concerned about the issuer’s ability to pay interest and principal - or they had questions about the value of assets backing the bond - then you might get less than you paid for it. How much less is hard to say. That would depend on how serious other bond investors viewed the problem. But even if there were no credit concerns, you might get less than you paid for your bond if interest rates have climbed since you bought it. How much less depends on a number of factors, including the bond’s maturity date and its “coupon,” or the annual fixed rate of interest the bond. In the case of interest-rate risk, it’s a little easier to estimate how much you might lose because there’s a nifty little stat called duration that gives you a good sense of how sensitive a bond is to changes in interest rates. If a bond has a duration of, say, 8 years, then its price would drop roughly 8% for every one-percentage point increase in interest rates. The broker who sold you the bond should be able to give you its duration. You can also estimate the duration of a bond with this calculator. And by going to the InvestinginBonds site, you can also check the recent trading prices of government, municipal, corporate and mortgage-backed. You’ve asked about a penalty, but you should also know that credit and interest-rate risk could work in your favor. If a bond issuer’s creditworthiness improves after you bought the bond, you might get a higher price than you paid. Similarly, if interest rates fall, the price side of the seesaw would rise, lifting the bond’s price. In fact, if the bond has a duration of 8 years and rates fell by one percentage point, then the bond’s price would rise by about 8%. How to invest
One thing you didn’t ask about but I think is important to bring up anyway is whether you should be in individual bonds, as opposed to bond funds. My take on that is that if you really don’t know your way around bonds - and I’ve only scratched the surface here - you shouldn’t buy individual issues. There are too many ways to make costly mistakes in the bond market, like the very real possibility of dramatically overpaying for what you get. And even if you do consider yourself an old bond hand, you’re still probably better off in funds unless you’ve got enough moola to build a diversified portfolio of individual issues. Reasonable people can disagree about how much you need, but I’d say you should have $50,000 or more to invest in individual bonds. If you do go the fund route, I’d recommend sticking mostly to funds that invest in high-quality bonds and keep the average maturity in the short- to intermediate-term range, or four to seven years. I think that’s a smart strategy - especially given all the concerns today about credit quality and a possible uptick in inflation. You can always try fancier strategies, of course. Just be aware that if things go wrong, you could end up having to take a loss on your bonds or bond funds if you sell. Got a question? Ask the expert.
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Posted by kp 9:11 am 34 Comments
I think one question is…why were sub-primes allowed in the first place. Some said it would not work and some of the games played by the lenders were proven true. Legal/illegal practices were done. Some CEO’s made millions and the companys went down. They didn’t know what was wrong? How about some jail time, look what this did to the economy. Greed did it. Isn’t it about time people should make sure the politicians did something about this. Remember Washington runs on greased palmss, but YOU put them in office. Posted By Joe, New York : March 20, 2008 5:12 pm
I agree that mortgage companies that broke the law should be punished. But in many cases, they did nothing illegal and the borrower simply did not read or understand their loan terms. Now those people want someone to bail them out. That makes no sense. If you can’t afford a home, don’t buy one. Make sure you know what you are getting into. And if “predatory” lending practices are legal, write to your congressman to change the law. In many cases, the mortgage companies have already paid for making bad loans to people that shouldn’t own a home. Take a look at CFC and IMB for a few that are still in business. Posted By Eric, Pasadena, CA : March 14, 2008 4:54 pm
i-bonds are a great way to go right now. Better yet, set them up in Roth IRA for the year. Posted By DJ, Des Monies, Iowa : March 12, 2008 7:35 pm
$20000 down to $8000? What the hell did you buy? As W.C. Fields famously said “You can’t cheat an honest man” Posted By Bob, California : March 12, 2008 5:31 pm
To Eric, What about all the predatory lending practices of the mortgage companies? Maybe we should go after all of those animals and arrest and fine them so they lose everything too. Posted By Anonymous : March 12, 2008 4:54 pm
“EXCESSIVE” MATURITIES Well-rated bonds still offer a balance for the portfolio risks of stocks. They always will. That said, they clearly do not offer the same award potential of stocks and stock funds. They never will. That is not their purpose. The worst mistakes people make, when considering bonds is: 1. Buying too large a percentage of them when you are a young investor 2. Buying too long a maturity when interest rates are historically low, which they are now The best time to buy bonds (in their history) was during the Carter Administration, when interest rates were double digit. Then, you wanted the LONGEST maturity date you could get. Not so now. sanjosemike Posted By San Jose, CA : March 12, 2008 12:50 pm
I bought an individual Alabama Power bond many years ago in a falling interest rate environment and did quite well on it. Recently-I bought a long term bond fund as soon as the fed started dropping their rates-specific results so far:purchase price-$11.33, current price $11.44-about a 1.23% boost in the yield-hardly the 8% price change this article predicts-so I think you get better results with individual bonds. As for timing-I have yet to see a time when the fed has starting cutting or raising rates that they only make one cut or raise-I jump as soon as they turn the corner… Posted By Steve in Independence, Mo : March 12, 2008 10:41 am
One thing I don’t understand is how does a company decide when to not pay the bond back. Is it on a whim, or do bonds have priority to dividends on their stock? Can the company decide they need cash and just default? Can they decide to pay some but not others if they are all the same level of seniority? I’ve looked everywhere on the web for this. Posted By josh, san jose, ca : March 12, 2008 1:42 am
Some previous commenters state that there’s no price risk if one holds one’s bonds to maturity. In reality, this practice would only reveal that what we here are calling “price risk” is actually just the marking-to-market of opportunity cost. In essence, by holding the bond to maturity when more attractive bonds were available, you locked in your price risk and it became accountable for as your oppportunity cost - the difference between what you were repaid, and what you could have been repaid in the higher-interest-rate vehicle. Posted By jon w, claremont, ca : March 12, 2008 12:51 am
I’m have to agree with the author on that one. I have one of the best bond geniuses in the world working for me full time watching bond prices daily and investing for me. Big shot? no, I stuck a couple grand in a PIMCO bond fund. Posted By Pat, San Antonio, TX : March 12, 2008 12:35 am
For a bond fund, if you buy it and hold on to it for a “long” time (let’s say -15-20 yrs) and collect the yield as income do you have to worry about the fluctuations in NAV w/changes in interest rates. Would this be similar to buying a bond and holding it to maturity? Thanks. Posted By Robert, Phoenix : March 11, 2008 7:42 pm
One thing the article does not mention is the wide spreads bonds seem to have (maybe not treasuries). If you change your mind and what to sell what you bought, even if interest rates held or moved a little in your favor, you will loose because you buy near the ask price and sell near the bid price. And the bid/ask spread you get at your broker will probably be wider than what he really sees. It’s basically a hidden commission and it can be large. I think I read total spreads of 2-3% are not uncommon. Perhaps others can correct or clarify. Posted By Mark, New Berlin, WI : March 11, 2008 6:01 pm
i think all govt bonds are nice instruments for business engage in currencies exchanges ……hedging and all that stuff……any comments….. Posted By hmmmm, nyc, ny : March 11, 2008 5:24 pm
John…what kind of bond do you have? Interest rates are at historic lows and treasuries have been great investments, with fantastic capital gains. Sounds like you have some structured cra*. You need a fair amount of capital to trade cash bonds..and you should have an idea where the price should be…if not…look out cuz your gonna get a haircut. Munis are the absolute worst for haircuts (more like getting scalped). Most bonds are buy and hold investments because of the bro. Trading callable agencies is a real popular strategy…but you need to do a little homework. Trading bond or note futures is the cheapest way…but you need about 25k in a margin account. You can trade a 20 year equivalent with small amounts like a stock (Lehmans IShares TLT)…it’s a great way to box out greedy brokers. You can also trade small amounts of bonds online at a fairly reasonable prices through Fidelity or Etrade. They post the book for you to view…but it’s all sell side dealers. Still better than calling a voice broker. Also look at preferreds right now…some great deals and they trade like stocks. Good luck all. Posted By clay,chicago,IL : March 11, 2008 4:46 pm
I always love reading the opinion of people that are not advisors themselves. Bottom line is this - for some people, bond funds are a good idea, for others, indvidual bonds make sense. It depends on a number of factors. It’s neither fair nor sensible to to say one is “better than the other”. I wonder if some of these posters have hidden agendas. Or maybe they just work in a call center at Vanguard. In any event, most investors should hold bonds to reduce risk and to generate income. For others, if they are savvy, they can be a way to generate gains as well (such as international bond investing or purchasing a TIPs fund or issue over the past 2 years). Posted By Rick, Baltimore MD : March 11, 2008 4:14 pm
Bonds offer three things that funds can’t. 1- maturity date, 2- fixed rate of return, 3- maturity value. You buy bonds for income, hold them to maturity, and you don’t lose. But when your investment in a bond fund drops 20-30% when do you get your principal back? Problem is….. many times you never do. Posted By Anonymous : March 11, 2008 3:44 pm
Bait and switch. I assumed by the title of the article that I was going to get some insight into the timing of buying bonds now, in today’s environment. I did not expect a Bond 101 lesson with absolutely no commentary on the market. Posted By Marc Stephens, Boston, MA : March 11, 2008 3:32 pm
In regards to Mike’s comment about falling rates. The short term rate has been dropping, but the long term rate (10 year +) is going up. Posted By Brandon: Richmond, VA : March 11, 2008 2:58 pm
I feel like this article is more of an opportunity for Walter Updegrave to bash individual bonds than to answer the question. The truth is that individual bond investing is perfectly suitable for individuals of many income levels. While bond funds may be more appropriate for individuals more than 10 years from retirement that simply want something with a negative correlation to their stock portfolio, individual bond investing is a great tool for retirees and those looking at specific time frames and goals. As opposed to bringing up these and other points, the article simply comes off as unobjective by projecting an unfavorable light upon the product. Posted By Ryan, Dallas TX : March 11, 2008 2:50 pm
If John Stuart’s bond was issued by a financially healthy entity, then it probably would not have dropped in value from $20,000 to $8,000 in just a couple of years. Posted By Michael, Inglewood, California : March 11, 2008 2:50 pm
I agree. Bonds are typically bought for income (not cap gains), and when you buy them, you should generally be prepared to hold them until maturity. Posted By Anonymous : March 11, 2008 2:29 pm
In response to John Stuart: There are risks involved in any investment. Why should the government be responsible for bailing you out of a decision you made yourself? If you are not willing to accept the risks of an investment, put the cash under your mattress. This should apply to housing as well. The government does not have a responsibility to protect people from buying a house they cannot afford. Independence and self-reliance used to be cornerstones of the American psyche. It’s time to bring those traits back. Posted By Eric, Pasadena, CA : March 11, 2008 2:12 pm
You did not mention the largest bond risk for long-term bonds, namely, the inflation risk. The $10,000 you are repaid at maturity for the S10,000 bond will not be as valuable as the $10,000 you invested at the start. The interest payments may, or may not, compensation for the loss of purchasing power. Posted By Mike Vaughn, Needham, MA : March 11, 2008 1:43 pm
You didn’t mention the other bond risk - inflation risk. If inflation is 5% during the term of a bond then when you get your face value back it’s reduced in value by inflation or 5%. If you sell before it’s term is up you will get back less because the buyer is taking on this inflation risk. Posted By Craig, Swanton, MD : March 11, 2008 1:34 pm
I’d just invest in the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index and forget about it. Posted By anonymous, philadelphia, pa : March 11, 2008 1:34 pm
To John Stuart, Assuming your bonds were Govt issued, then the Govt will bail you out by paying you back the full $20,000 you invested. All you have to do is wait until they mature. Sheesh! Why do some people expect the Govt to bail them out of every bad personal decision they make? Posted By Dave, Erie CO : March 11, 2008 1:16 pm
I wanted to clarify John Stuart’s comment. He says his wifes bond has fallen from 20,000 to 8,000 in value. I image that is the current value of the bond if sold “today”. However, if the bond was held to maturity wouldn’t you get your 20,000 back? or does this bond involve CMO isseues. If your bond was issued by a financially healthly org. orgovt. entity, you get all your $ back. This is still the case w/ munis.. So maybe the lesson is , if you can’t wait until maturity, don’t buy Posted By Larry, NYc : March 11, 2008 12:31 pm
You need a lot more than $50k to invest in individual bonds. Assuming that you would want at least 20 different issues for diversification, that would be only $2,500 per bond, which is not a large enough lot to be profitable after commissions. Most institutional investors buy in lots of at least $1MM. Individual investors should look at bond funds - I currently like long-dated high quality munis. Posted By Anonymous : March 11, 2008 12:27 pm
You should have pointed out that if a bond is held to maturity and is repaid, then is no price risk for the holder. Posted By Peter, Madison, Wis : March 11, 2008 12:26 pm
Duhh. Maybe I’m a investment novice but the investment article seems to dwell on what happens when to bond value went interest rate rise. Well for the passt 6-months or so, interest rates have fallen. Is this not good for bond investers? Posted By mike l., burke, virginia : March 11, 2008 12:25 pm
Fred, you are a bit off topic, but it is going to the banks and financial institutions, to keep their balance sheets from collapsing. The Fed’s key concern right now is to keep those institutions functioning. If they go down, we will all have bigger issues than a mortgage default… they are the oil in the engine of our economy, and if they go bankrupt, the economy crashes, and we could end up with double digit unemployment. Posted By J.R. Louisville Colorado : March 11, 2008 11:56 am
A couple of years ago, my wife and I invested $20,000 in bonds to bring back a safe return and use the money later on for our daughters’ weddings. The bonds are now worth $8000 - it’s still paying interest, but it was the worst investment we have ever made. If the government is bailing out mortgage lenders and borrowers, who is going to bail out people like us who have lost 60% of our investment? Posted By John Stuart, Knoxville, Tennessee : March 11, 2008 11:49 am
Where is all this money going that is being injected into the economy, certainly has no effect on residential borrowers,the consumer continues to be sqeezed in this economy…. Posted By Fred Jones, St louis, Mo : March 11, 2008 11:02 am
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josh,
Companies will go to great lengths to pay their bondholders their interest and principal back. Companies are rated by credit agencies such as Moody’s. If they default on a bond, their rating goes down. This makes it much more expensive for them to get credit (just like a bad Fico score does for a consumer). They would have to pay higher interest to prospective bondholders in order to attract bond investors.
If the company were to go bankrupt, the bondholders are first in line to get paid back - ahead of the stockholders. This is the fundamental reason why stocks are riskier than bonds, and why stocks have superior returns (to compensate for the added risk).